{"id":1700,"date":"2021-03-21T15:08:20","date_gmt":"2021-03-21T15:08:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/?p=1700"},"modified":"2021-08-31T21:01:44","modified_gmt":"2021-08-31T21:01:44","slug":"perspective-mankinds-history-of-predictions-of-the-future-considered-within-the-context-of-the-many-covid-19-predictions-of-imminent-health-catastrophe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/?p=1700","title":{"rendered":"PERSPECTIVE: Mankind\u2019s history of \u201cPredictions of the future\u201d considered within the context of the many Covid-19 predictions of imminent health catastrophe:<\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

In the midst of this Covid-19 crisis we are being assured that the WHO, Big Pharma, Bill Gates et al can predict the future<\/em> and we the citizenry had better take their word for it that massive numbers will die unless we regularly take vaccines that they are financially invested in the production and distribution of.<\/strong> Governments worldwide are in thrall to these people and their doom mongering predictions of imminent disaster. But take a personal moment to reflect on the history of one\u2019s own personal abilities in the area of predicting the future and you\u2019ll soon admit that you don\u2019t have any. The aphorism \u201cno one knows what tomorrow will bring\u201d has rolled off everyone\u2019s tongues hasn\u2019t it? So ask yourself why on earth should anyone else\u2019s proficiency in predictions for the future be any better than yours? Mankind\u2019s history of predicting anything has been consistently woeful. The original basis for the current Covid-19 panic began with MSM publishing Neil Ferguson\u2019s doom-mongering predictions of the future surrounding Covid-19. The press adored him. Governments bowed to his expertise as a subject matter expert of and he was promptly promoted to become a member of the UKs SAGE committee.<\/p>

Apart from The Spectator,\u00a0 the MSM were scrupulously careful to avoid fact-checking Fergusons history in this area I will cover it here. It would be hilarious if it were not so serious:<\/p>

A History of Neil Ferguson\u2019s multiple \u201cfuture health scare prediction farces\u201d over six questions he should answer:<\/strong><\/a><\/p>

In 2005, Ferguson\u00a0<\/span>said<\/a>\u00a0that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the\u00a0<\/span>Guardian<\/em>\u00a0that \u2018around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak\u2026 There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.\u2019 In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.<\/span><\/p>

Q1.\u00a0<\/strong>How did he get this forecast so wrong?\u00a0<\/p>

In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely\u00a0estimate<\/a>\u00a0was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government\u00a0estimate<\/a>, based on Ferguson\u2019s advice, said a \u2018reasonable worst-case scenario\u2019 was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.<\/p>

In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death\u00a0rate<\/a>\u00a0of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.<\/p>

Q2.\u00a0<\/strong>Why did the Imperial team overestimate the fatality of the disease? Or to\u00a0borrow Robinson’s words to Hancock this morning: ‘that prediction wasn’t just nonsense was it? It was dangerous nonsense.’<\/p>

In 2001 the Imperial team produced modelling on foot and mouth disease that suggested that animals in neighbouring farms should be culled, even if there was no evidence of infection. This influenced government policy and led to the total culling of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs \u2013 with a cost to the UK economy estimated at \u00a310 billion.<\/p>

It has been claimed by experts such as Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, that Ferguson\u2019s modelling on foot and mouth was \u2018severely flawed\u2019 and made a \u2018serious error\u2019 by \u2018ignoring the species composition of farms,\u2019 and the fact that the disease spread faster between different species.<\/p>

Q3.\u00a0<\/strong>Does Ferguson acknowledge that his modelling in 2001 was flawed and if so, has he taken steps to avoid future mistakes?<\/p>

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He also predicted that number could rise to 150,000 if there was a\u00a0sheep epidemic<\/a>\u00a0as well. In the UK, there have only been 177 deaths from BSE.<\/p>

Q4.\u00a0<\/strong>Does Ferguson believe that his \u2018worst-case scenario\u2019 in this case was too high? If so, what lessons has he learnt when it comes to his modelling since?<\/p>

Ferguson\u2019s disease modelling for Covid-19 has been criticised by experts such as John Ioannidis, professor in disease prevention at Stanford University, who has said that: \u2018The Imperial College study has been done by a highly competent team of modellers. However, some of the major assumptions and estimates that are built in the calculations seem to be\u00a0<\/span>substantially inflated<\/a>.\u2019<\/span><\/p>

Q5.\u00a0<\/strong>Has the Imperial team\u2019s Covid-19 model been subject to outside scrutiny from other experts, and are the team questioning their own assumptions used? What safeguards are in place?<\/p>

On 22 March, Ferguson\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0that\u00a0Imperial College London\u2019s model of the Covid-19 disease is based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code, that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.<\/p>

Q6.\u00a0<\/strong>How many assumptions in the Imperial model are still based on influenza and is there any risk that the modelling is flawed because of these assumptions?<\/p>

CONCLUSION:<\/u><\/strong> Dail Eireann\u2019s \u2018future-predictions\u2019 on ALL <\/em>of the following have proven to be demonstrably false:<\/strong><\/p>

  1. The trajectory of Covid-19 (remember the \u201cthree weeks to flatten the curve\u201d prediction?<\/em> And all of the other predictions since then\u2026)<\/strong><\/li>
  2. Covid-19 fatality rate (turned out to be miniscule)<\/strong><\/li>
  3. The predicted outcomes of the Covid-19 restriction measures have all proved demonstrably false.<\/strong><\/li><\/ol>

    So when will the public wake up and stop taking this nonsense seriously?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    In the midst of this Covid-19 crisis we are being assured that the WHO, Big Pharma, Bill Gates et al can predict the future and we the citizenry had better take their word for it that massive numbers will die Continue reading PERSPECTIVE: Mankind\u2019s history of \u201cPredictions of the future\u201d considered within the context of the many Covid-19 predictions of imminent health catastrophe:<\/strong><\/span>→<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1349,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-plandemic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1700"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1700\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4402,"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1700\/revisions\/4402"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/truth-watch.today\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}